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Burkhart publishes article on forecasting the French presidential election result

Ross Burkhart, professor of political science in the School of Public Service, published the article “A Fractured Electorate? French Presidential Election Forecasting for 2022” in the Journal of Political Science and Public Opinion.

Using data from previous French presidential elections from 1965 to 2017, Burkhart performed a statistical analysis to forecast the French presidential election results. He found the key forecasting variable, public approval of the French president five months prior to the election, is an accurate harbinger of election results, strongly suggesting that the French electorate gives priority to past governmental performance in deciding on the country’s political future.