Skip to main content

Burkhart publishes on forecasts of French elections

Ross Burkhart, professor of political Science in the School of Public Service recently published an article detailing his efforts to forecast the results of the last French presidential election in advance. The article, “A Fractured Electorate?: French Presidential Election Forecasting for 2022,” was published in the Journal of Political Science and Public Opinion. His statistical model, using data from past presidential elections, was used to make a forecast. The forecast was based on the public’s perception of the performance of the incumbent president, as well as the public’s perception of economic performance. The forecasts, over time, have successfully predicted the winning presidential candidate.